Oklahoma City Thunder vs New Orleans Pelicans Prediction & Tips, 7 Oct 2026
Pelicans1.7418+ | Gamble responsibly
Series
| Game | Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 02/11/2025 | Thunder | 137 - 106 | Pelicans |
| 2 | 02/11/2025 | Thunder | Final | Pelicans |
| 3 | 17/11/2025 | Pelicans | Final | Thunder |
| 4 | 18/11/2025 | Pelicans | 109 - 126 | Thunder |
| 5 | 27/01/2026 | Thunder | Final | Pelicans |
| 6 | 28/01/2026 | Thunder | 104 - 95 | Pelicans |
| 7 | 21/11/2026 | Thunder | Not Started | Pelicans |
| 8 | 24/12/2026 | Pelicans | Not Started | Thunder |
| 9 | 21/01/2027 | Pelicans | Not Started | Thunder |
| 10 | 03/04/2027 | Thunder | Not Started | Pelicans |
Injury Report
Player Statistics
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | 31.1 | 4.3 | 6.6 | 33.2 |
| Chet Holmgren | 17.1 | 8.9 | 1.7 | 28.9 |
| Jalen Williams | 17.1 | 4.6 | 5.5 | 28.4 |
| Ajay Mitchell | 13.6 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 25.8 |
| Isaiah Joe | 11.1 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 21.2 |
| Player | PTS | REB | AST | MIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 21.5 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 35.5 |
| Zion Williamson | 21.0 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 29.7 |
| Saddiq Bey | 17.7 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 31.2 |
| Dejounte Murray | 16.7 | 5.4 | 6.4 | 27.8 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 14.3 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 25.8 |
Head to Head
Previous Meetings
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Final Result
Contents
Our Prediction
Our model favors Oklahoma City's defensive pressure and perimeter efficiency. Expect a hard-fought battle, with the Thunder securing a 114-108 victory and covering the -5.5 spread.
Top Markets
- MoneylineOklahoma City Thunder
- SpreadOklahoma City Thunder -5.5
- Projected Total Points222
Match Facts
- Competition
- NBA
- Date
- Wed 7 Oct
- Tip-off
- 01:00
- Arena
- Wright S.
Win Probability
Match Preview
A premier Western Conference matchup features the Oklahoma City Thunder hosting the New Orleans Pelicans. This game showcases two highly athletic rosters with contrasting tactical approaches. Oklahoma City's elite, high-pressure defense will test New Orleans' physical, paint-dominant offense in a crucial early-season statement game.
Expect an intense, physical battle. The Paycom Center crowd will provide a massive boost for the Thunder, who look to disrupt the Pelicans' offensive rhythm with relentless perimeter pressure.
- Oklahoma City forces 16.2 turnovers per game.
- New Orleans averages 54.2 points in the paint.
- The Thunder shoot 38.9% from three-point range.
- Pelicans hold opponents to 44.1% field-goal percentage.
Team Analysis
Oklahoma City boasts an elite defensive rating of 107.5 and leads the league in opponent turnover percentage. New Orleans counters with interior dominance, utilizing their size to achieve a +4.8 rebounding margin and control the paint.
Tactical Breakdown
This game highlights High-Efficiency Half-Court Offense. Oklahoma City's drive-and-kick spacing will test New Orleans' perimeter rotations, while the Pelicans must exploit their interior size advantage.
Injuries & Doubts
Form and Head to Head
- W
- W
- L
- W
- W
Oklahoma City has won three of the last four meetings, using their speed and perimeter shooting to neutralize New Orleans' size advantage in half-court matchups.
Key Stats
- Offensive Rating: 117.8 vs 114.5
- Defensive Rating: 107.5 vs 112.2
- Pace: 100.1
- eFG%: 55.4% vs 53.8%
- Turnover Rate: 11.5% vs 13.8%
Odds
Moneyline
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 1.90 |
|---|---|
| New Orleans Pelicans | 1.88 |
Average odds across all bookmakers. 18+ | Gamble responsibly
Scoring, Rebounds, Turnovers and Fouls
| Stat | Oklahoma City Thunder | New Orleans Pelicans |
|---|---|---|
| Expected Points | 114 | 108 |
| 3s Made | 15 | 11 |
Foul Trouble Watch
New Orleans' physical drives will challenge the Thunder's discipline. Expect high free-throw volume, with Oklahoma City's frontcourt facing potential foul trouble against physical post play.
Rebounding Battle
New Orleans holds a clear advantage on the glass. Oklahoma City must rely on collective defensive rebounding to prevent second-chance points and fuel transition opportunities.
Turnover Watch
The turnover battle is critical. Oklahoma City's ability to force live-ball turnovers and score in transition will offset New Orleans' physical rebounding dominance.
Verdict
Oklahoma City's elite defensive pressure and superior perimeter shooting will carry them to victory. The Pelicans' interior dominance will keep it close, but turnovers will prove decisive.
FAQ
Can the Pelicans upset the Thunder in Oklahoma City?+
While New Orleans has a strong interior presence, Oklahoma City's elite defensive rating of 107.5 makes them heavy favorites to win 114-108.
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