This matchup presents an interesting dynamic: A. Gray's developing game and potential for high scoring against L. Pride's established consistency and solid all-round play. Gray can be explosive but might lack the sustained pressure of Pride. Pride, with a slightly higher average and reliable finishing, will aim to control the tempo. The match is likely to feature periods of strong scoring from both, with the outcome potentially decided by who can maintain composure on the doubles in critical moments.

A. Gray comes into this match with a recent three-dart average of 92.8, showcasing his potential as an emerging talent. He averages 0.28 180s per leg, indicating a growing capacity for maximums and high scores. L. Pride, a solid all-rounder, boasts a higher recent average of 95.0. Pride is a consistent scorer, averaging 0.33 180s per leg, and is known for his ability to maintain pressure with frequent 100+ visits, making him a tough opponent to outscore.

A. Gray's checkout percentage stands at 39%, demonstrating a decent ability to finish legs, though there is room for improvement under intense pressure. He averages 2.8 doubles missed per leg. L. Pride, with a more refined finishing game, holds a strong checkout percentage of 42%. Pride is generally very reliable on the doubles, often cleaning up in two or three darts. His doubles hit percentage is 42%, with an average of 2.3 doubles missed per leg, giving him a distinct advantage in the crucial closing stages of legs.

A. Gray and L. Pride have met only once previously, with L. Pride securing a 4-2 victory. This limited history suggests that while Pride has an early advantage, Gray is still learning and improving, making this rematch a fresh challenge. There is no established deciding-leg pattern between these two players yet.

L. Pride will likely aim to establish a consistent scoring rhythm from the outset, putting pressure on Gray to keep pace. His ability to hold throw will be key. A. Gray will need to be aggressive on the trebles and capitalize on any scoring opportunities to build leads. Both players will be looking for early breaks of throw, but Pride's experience in managing legs might give him an edge in tactical exchanges and setting up crucial checkouts.

L. Pride is generally composed under pressure, particularly on the doubles, and has a good track record in deciding legs. His experience allows him to manage nerves effectively. A. Gray, as an emerging talent, is still developing his composure in high-pressure situations. While capable of brilliance, he might show moments of hesitation on the doubles when the match is on the line. This will be a significant test of his mental fortitude.

Our analytical model favors L. Pride in this encounter, primarily due to his consistent all-round game and superior finishing. We predict Pride to win with a probability of 58%, while Gray holds a 42% chance. The expected total legs played is 6.5, suggesting a competitive match that could easily go the distance. The probability of a deciding leg is estimated at 40%, reflecting Gray's potential to push Pride.

Pride's consistent scoring and superior finishing make him the favorite against the emerging talent of Gray. While Gray has the potential for big scores, Pride's experience and efficiency on the doubles should see him through in what is expected to be a competitive match.