This encounter projects as a moderately paced affair, with both players capable of significant scoring bursts. A. Small brings a reputation for steady accumulation, while D. Evans is known for resilient play. The match is likely to feature periods of intense scoring followed by crucial battles on the doubles, particularly in the mid-to-late stages of legs. The player who can maintain composure and capitalize on scoring opportunities will undoubtedly gain a significant advantage.

A. Small typically boasts a three-dart average around 87.0, demonstrating strong scoring power. They are adept at hitting the treble 20, evidenced by an expected 1 180s and a high volume of 140+ scores. D. Evans, on the other hand, enters with a solid three-dart average of approximately 84.0. While perhaps not as prolific in maximums as A. Small, D. Evans consistently racks up 140s and 100s, maintaining pressure throughout the scoring phase. The ability to string together consecutive high scores will be paramount in this contest.

When it comes to finishing, A. Small exhibits a checkout percentage of around 31.5%, indicating a reliable ability to close out legs. Their high-finish range is respectable, often converting 100+ checkouts. D. Evans presents a checkout efficiency of approximately 28.5%. While generally consistent, there can be moments of vulnerability on the outer ring under extreme pressure. The player who can convert their opportunities on the doubles with greater consistency, especially in crucial legs, will hold a significant edge. High finishes could also be a game-changer, with both capable of spectacular checkouts.

Historically, these players have met on a few occasions, with the head-to-head record currently standing at a tight 3-2 in favor of A. Small. Their previous encounters have often been closely contested, with a notable 60% of their matches going to a deciding leg. This suggests a pattern of resilience from both competitors, indicating that this match could also be a prolonged battle where mental fortitude will be as crucial as darting skill.

A. Small often starts quickly, aiming to establish an early lead and put pressure on their opponent. Their ability to front-run is a key asset. Conversely, D. Evans has shown resilience in chasing down leads, often finding an extra gear in the middle stages of a match. The battle for leg-on-throw will be critical, with both players needing to hold their own throw consistently to avoid falling behind. Break-of-throw opportunities will be fiercely contested and could prove decisive.

Handling pressure on the doubles will be a defining factor. A. Small generally maintains composure, hitting doubles at a 31.5% rate, even in high-stakes situations. D. Evans, while capable, has occasionally shown signs of faltering, particularly when facing multiple darts for a leg. In potential last-leg deciders, A. Small's experience might give them a slight edge, but D. Evans's fighting spirit should not be underestimated. The player who can execute their checkout under the most intense scrutiny will emerge victorious.

Our analytical model predicts a victory for A. Small with a probability of 54%. The expected total legs played in this best-of-7 encounter is around 5. There is a 38% chance of this match going to a deciding leg, reflecting the competitive nature of both players.

In conclusion, this match pits A. Small's consistent pressure against D. Evans's steady play. While A. Small holds a slight statistical edge in scoring power, D. Evans's ability to grind out legs could make this a tight affair. The ultimate victor will likely be the player who best manages their nerves and capitalizes on crucial checkout opportunities.