The matchup projects as a contest between England's consistent high scoring and Spain's potential for explosive bursts. England is expected to dictate the scoring tempo, frequently hitting 140s and 180s to put pressure on Spain. Spain will need to capitalize on any scoring lulls from England and maintain a solid checkout percentage to stay competitive. This match is likely to feature periods of heavy scoring, but could also devolve into a grind on the doubles if both teams struggle to convert their opportunities, particularly in the mid-range finishes.

England's scoring profile is characterized by a formidable 98.5 three-dart average, consistently hitting the treble 20. They are adept at stringing together high scores, averaging 5 maximum 180s per match and frequently registering 140+ visits. This relentless scoring power allows them to build significant leads in legs. Spain, while capable, typically operates with a 93.2 three-dart average. Their scoring is more sporadic, averaging 3 maximums per match, but they possess the ability to produce crucial 140s when under pressure, preventing their opponents from running away with legs too easily.

England boasts a strong finishing game, converting 42.0% of their checkout attempts. They are particularly clinical on their preferred doubles and show good composure when closing out legs, often hitting high finishes in the 120-160 range. Spain's checkout efficiency stands at 36.5%, indicating room for improvement, especially under duress. While they can hit big finishes, their consistency on doubles can waver, leading to missed opportunities. The ability to clean up in two or three darts will be paramount for Spain to break England's throw and hold their own.

Historically, England holds a favorable record against Spain, winning 70% of their previous encounters. Many of these matches have been decided in the later stages, with 30% going to a deciding leg. England has demonstrated superior composure in these high-stakes situations, often converting crucial checkouts to secure victory. Spain will be looking to reverse this trend and prove their mettle in a significant international fixture.

England typically adopts a front-running strategy, aiming to establish early leads through heavy scoring and maintain control. Their ability to secure legs on their own throw is a significant advantage. Spain, conversely, often finds itself in a chasing position, requiring strong break-of-throw performances. The tactical battle will hinge on Spain's ability to disrupt England's rhythm and convert crucial breaks, while England will focus on maintaining their scoring consistency and clinical finishing to prevent any comebacks.

England generally handles pressure well, particularly on doubles in crucial moments, missing an average of 2.5 doubles per leg. Their experience in high-stakes matches often sees them close out legs efficiently. Spain, however, can show signs of fragility under intense pressure, with 3.8 doubles missed per leg. Deciding legs will test Spain's mental fortitude, where England's composure and higher checkout percentage could prove decisive.

Our analytical model predicts England as the likely winner with a 70% probability, reflecting their superior statistical profile. We anticipate a competitive match, with an expected total of 12 legs played. The probability of this match going to a deciding leg is estimated at 25%, indicating that while England is favored, Spain has the capacity to push them to the limit.

England's superior scoring power and more consistent finishing make them the clear favorites. While Spain possesses the ability to challenge, England's overall efficiency and composure under pressure are expected to guide them to victory in this best-of-15 legs encounter. The key will be England maintaining their high average and Spain converting their limited opportunities.