U. De Chile 1-0 U. Catolica: Result and Lineups, 25 Apr 2026

The analytical model suggests a 40% probability of a home win for U. De Chile, with a 33% chance of a draw. A 1-1 or 2-1 scoreline is the most statistically frequent outcome in this rivalry.

• Both teams have scored in 70% of the last ten Clasico Universitario meetings.
• Universidad de Chile averages 1.6 goals per game when playing at home.
• Universidad Catolica has recorded the highest pass completion rate in the league's final third.
• Average disciplinary metrics for this derby stand at 6.2 yellow cards per match.

Expect a high card count (over 5.5) given the historical intensity of the derby. Corner frequency is projected at 11.5 per match due to both teams' attacking styles.

The Clasico Universitario between Universidad de Chile and Universidad Catolica remains one of the most statistically significant fixtures in the Chilean Liga de Primera. Both sides enter this Week 11 clash at the Estadio Nacional seeking to establish top-tier dominance. Universidad de Chile has focused on a high-pressing defensive system this season, aiming to force turnovers in the opposition half. Universidad Catolica, traditionally a side that favors fluid ball progression, will look to utilize their technical superiority in the midfield to bypass the pressure. Historical data suggests that the intensity of this rivalry often leads to a high volume of defensive interventions and disciplinary actions. Performance metrics indicate that the side capable of controlling the central 'pivot' zone will likely secure the majority of shot-creating actions.

A fervent atmosphere is anticipated at the Estadio Nacional Julio Martinez Pradanos for this historic derby. Tactical discipline often gives way to high-intensity physical duels in the opening exchanges.

Universidad de Chile's strength this season has been their aerial win rate and defensive organization during set-piece scenarios. However, they have occasionally struggled with creative output when forced to break down a low block. Universidad Catolica boasts a superior xG from open play, driven by their interchanging front three, but they remain vulnerable to rapid counter-attacks. Their defensive transitions have been identified as a key area of weakness, particularly when their full-backs are committed forward in the final third.

High-Efficiency Tactical Setup: U. Catolica's 4-3-3 allows for effective wide overloads. Defensive Vulnerability Insight: U. De Chile's central defensive pairing is susceptible to through-balls. High-Impact Substitution Patterns: U. De Chile often introduces a physical target man late in the game to exploit tired defenses.

The head-to-head history is incredibly tight, with Universidad de Chile holding a slight advantage in home fixtures over the last five seasons.