Leeds vs Burnley Lineups, 1 May 2026

Modeling suggests a high 62% win probability for Leeds. A 2-0 or 3-0 home victory is the most statistically supported outcome given Burnley's scoring drought.

Leeds is currently on a 7-match unbeaten streak.Burnley has failed to win in their last 9 attempts.Brenden Aaronson has created 9 big chances for Leeds this season.Burnley has conceded the most penalties (7) in the league.

Expect 10+ corners for Leeds due to their attacking volume. Burnley's disciplinary record suggests a high likelihood of multiple bookings and potentially another penalty.

The Premier League clash between Leeds United and Burnley at Elland Road carries immense weight for the relegation battle. Leeds enters this fixture in a strong position, currently on a 7-match unbeaten streak and having scored 9 goals in their last 5 outings. Conversely, Burnley is mired in a 9-match winless run and has struggled offensively, netting only 2 goals across their previous 5 games. Tactical analysis reveals a significant disparity in chance creation; Brenden Aaronson has been the creative catalyst for Leeds with 9 big chances created. Burnley's disciplinary issues are a major concern, as they have conceded the most penalties in the league this season (7). Both squads face significant injury hurdles, with Leeds missing Sebastiaan Bornauw and Burnley sidelined without key figures like Josh Cullen and Hannibal Mejbri. This match represents a critical opportunity for Leeds to solidify their top-flight status while Burnley faces a must-win scenario under high pressure.

Expect a high-intensity start from Leeds as they look to exploit Burnley's defensive fragile state. The crowd at Elland Road will be a major factor in the momentum.

Leeds United demonstrates attacking momentum, driven by the playmaking of Brenden Aaronson. Their defense has remained relatively stable despite injuries to Sebastiaan Bornauw and Ilia Gruev. Burnley's primary weakness is their defensive discipline, having conceded 7 penalties this season. Their offensive output is nearly non-existent, with only 2 goals in their last 5 matches. The absence of Josh Cullen in the midfield further hampers Burnley's ability to transition effectively from defense to attack.

High-Efficiency Tactical Setup: Leeds' high-press with Brenden Aaronson. Defensive Vulnerability Insight: Burnley's susceptibility to conceding penalties. High-Impact Substitution Patterns: Leeds' use of Manor Solomon for late wide penetration.

The historical head-to-head record is closely matched, with Leeds holding 8 wins, Burnley 6 wins, and 4 draws between them.