Freiburg 1-1 Wolfsburg: Result and Lineups, 3 May 2026

Modeling favors a Home Win or Draw. A scoreline of 1-0 or 1-1 is the most likely trend, with Under 2.5 goals having a 60% probability.

Freiburg scores 30% of their goals from set-pieces.Wolfsburg's clean sheet ratio in away games is 15%.Freiburg concedes an average of 1.1 goals per home match.Average shots on target for this fixture is 8.2.

Discipline is expected to be moderate (3-4 yellow cards). Corners are projected to stay in the 8-10 range.

Freiburg hosts Wolfsburg in a Bundesliga matchup where structural consistency will be the primary theme. Freiburg has built its reputation on defensive cohesion and exceptional set-piece execution, making them one of the most difficult sides to break down in home fixtures. Performance modeling indicates that their success is often derived from maintaining a low block and exploiting errors in the opposition's build-up. Wolfsburg, by contrast, has shown fluctuating performance levels, often struggling to maintain technical intensity for the full 90 minutes. Recent data suggests that Wolfsburg's xG creation away from home is heavily reliant on individual moments of brilliance rather than collective tactical patterns. This match serves as a crucial test for Wolfsburg's patience, as they face a Freiburg side that excels in neutralizing high-possession teams through localized numerical superiority in the defensive third.

Expect a disciplined tactical display where Freiburg forces Wolfsburg into low-quality shots from the perimeter.

Freiburg demonstrates superior organizational discipline, with a high success rate in aerial duels and interceptions. Their attacking threat is methodical and relies on wide-area delivery. Wolfsburg possesses technical depth but lacks defensive stability during transition phases, leading to a high frequency of conceded goals following their own attacking corners.

High-Efficiency Tactical Setup: Freiburg's zonal defensive marking. Defensive Vulnerability Insight: Wolfsburg's exposure to counter-attacks. High-Impact Substitution Patterns: Freiburg's use of veteran midfielders to close out games.

Historical records show a balanced distribution of results, though Freiburg has won 60% of home encounters in the last three seasons.