Empoli vs Avellino - Serie B

The analytical model suggests a narrow home win or a draw (75% combined probability). A 1-0 or 1-1 result is statistically most likely given the 52% under 2.5 goal probability.

Empoli has a 47% probability of winning at home.The probability of under 2.5 goals is calculated at 52%.Steven Shpendi leads Empoli with 13 goals and 28 shots on target.Avellino has won 2 of their last 5 matches across all competitions.

Expect 9-10 corners. Discipline will be tight, with Gerard Yepes and Luca Palmiero both having 8 yellow cards this season.

Empoli hosts US Avellino at the Stadio Carlo Castellani in a fixture that pits two sides with contrasting seasonal trajectories. Empoli, currently 16th, is battling for stability following a 2-0 defeat to Venezia. Conversely, Avellino occupies the 8th position and recently secured a 2-0 victory over Bari 1908. Data-driven modeling gives Empoli a 47% win probability at home, despite their lower league standing. A primary tactical focus will be the efficiency of the front-line forwards; Empoli's Steven Shpendi (13 goals) and Avellino's Tommaso Biasci (12 goals) are the offensive focal points. Historical analysis shows Avellino has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings, though Empoli secured a dominant 3-0 away win in their most recent encounter in November 2025. Expect a match defined by narrow margins, with statistical probabilities suggesting a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

A high-stakes encounter where Empoli's home advantage meets Avellino's top-eight aspirations. Defensive discipline will be paramount as both teams average over 1.4 goals conceded.

Empoli's attacking output is led by Steven Shpendi, who has 13 goals and 28 shots on target. Despite their offensive capability, they concede 1.44 goals per match and have only 6 clean sheets. Avellino features Tommaso Biasci, a high-impact forward with 12 goals and 4 assists. Avellino has demonstrated a more robust recent defense, conceding only 1.0 goals per match over their last five games. However, their overall season average of 1.5 goals conceded per game highlights persistent defensive lapses. Salvatore Elia's 8 assists provide Empoli with vital wide service.

High-Efficiency Tactical Setup: Empoli's 4-3-1-2 with Salvatore Elia creating for Shpendi. Defensive Vulnerability Insight: Avellino's high concession rate (1.5 per game) this season. High-Impact Substitution Patterns: Avellino's use of Biasci's 24 SOG threat in late transitions.

Historically, Avellino has won 3 of the last 5 meetings, but Empoli won the most recent encounter 3-0 on November 22, 2025. Both teams average 1.2 goals per match in these matchups.