Wilkes-Barre/Scranton 3-4 Springfield Thunderbirds: Result, 15 May 2026

This AHL Atlantic Division matchup features the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins hosting the Springfield Thunderbirds in a game that could define their late-season trajectories. The Penguins have built their success on a suffocating defensive identity and league-leading goaltending performance. Springfield, by contrast, brings a more dynamic, high-event style that thrives on transition opportunities and shot volume. Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning, and with several top prospects expected to see significant ice time, the pace should be high from the start. The Penguins' ability to suppress Springfield's rush-based offense will be the primary tactical focus of the evening.

A clash of styles: the Penguins' low-event defensive lock against Springfield's high-event offensive pressure. The pace will be determined by whether the Penguins can successfully stall Springfield in the neutral zone.

Springfield's offense is driven by a high Fenwick for percentage, emphasizing unblocked shots and second-chance opportunities. The Penguins' offense is more methodical, focusing on high-danger chances from the cycle and capitalizing on opposition turnovers. Their expected goals (xG) are generally lower than Springfield's, but their finishing efficiency is higher.

The Penguins lead the league in shot suppression and goals against per game. Their defensive structure is disciplined, rarely giving up odd-man rushes. Springfield's defense is more aggressive, leading to more turnovers but also more high-danger chances allowed in their own zone.

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has a massive advantage in goals saved above expected (GSAx). Their starter is arguably the best in the AHL this season. Springfield's goaltender has a solid save percentage but is prone to allowing the occasional soft goal under pressure.

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton: W W L W LSpringfield Thunderbirds: L W L W W

The season series is split, with the home team winning every game so far. These matchups are typically low-scoring, with the Penguins' defensive structure often keeping Springfield below three goals.

Wilkes-Barre/Scranton has a 53.5% Corsi For share at home.Springfield averages 3.2 expected goals per game.The Penguins have the league's best penalty kill at 88.5%.Springfield leads the division in shorthanded goals.The Penguins' GSAx is +12.5.

The Penguins will use a 1-2-2 neutral-zone lock. Springfield will try to use stretch passes to beat the trap. The winner will be the team that best executes their special-teams strategy.

The Penguins are elite at protecting third-period leads. Springfield has shown resilience, with several comeback wins in the final five minutes of games this season.

Corsi For %: 53.5 (Home) / 48.2 (Away)Expected Goals For: 2.85 (Home) / 3.21 (Away)Save Percentage: .925 (Home) / .904 (Away)GSAx: +12.5 (Home) / +1.2 (Away)

The model favors Wilkes-Barre/Scranton with a 56% win probability. Total goals are expected to be 5.0, with a 65% probability of the under due to the Penguins' defensive dominance.

While Springfield's offense is dangerous, the Penguins' defensive lock and elite goaltending should be the difference. Expect a low-scoring game where the Penguins' shot suppression leads them to a narrow victory.