Wilkes-Barre/Scranton 2-4 Toronto Marlies: Result, 28 May 2026

We project an expected total goals of 5.5 for the game.

The Toronto Marlies boast a dynamic offense, consistently generating high shot volumes and quality scoring chances. Their Corsi For % of 53.0% and an expected goals for (xGF) of 3.05 per 60 minutes highlight their offensive prowess. They excel at creating high-danger chances off the rush and possess a strong power play operating at 23.5%. The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, while not as high-volume, are efficient, with an xGF of 2.80 per 60 minutes, often converting on fewer, but higher quality, opportunities. Their power play is solid at 20.0%.

Defensively, the Penguins are a well-structured unit, known for their strong neutral-zone play and shot suppression. They maintain a Corsi Against % of 46.0% and limit opponents to an expected goals against (xGA) of 2.35 per 60 minutes. Their penalty kill is robust, succeeding at 83.0%. The Marlies' defense, while capable of stifling opponents, can sometimes be susceptible to sustained offensive zone pressure, reflected in their xGA of 2.60 per 60 minutes. Their penalty kill operates at a respectable 79.5%.

Goaltending will be a critical factor. Toronto's netminder holds a .910 save percentage and a Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) of +4.0, providing solid, consistent play. The Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins' goaltender has been a standout, boasting a .922 save percentage and an impressive GSAx of +10.5, consistently bailing out his team on high-danger chances. A strong performance from the Penguins' goalie could be the difference-maker.

Toronto will likely employ an aggressive forecheck to create turnovers and fuel their transition game, aiming to exploit any defensive lapses with their speed. Wilkes-Barre/Scranton will counter with a structured neutral-zone defense and a heavy cycle game in the offensive zone, looking to wear down Toronto's defense and generate chances from sustained pressure. Special teams will be a tactical battleground, with both coaches emphasizing discipline and efficiency.

The Marlies have shown resilience in close games, often finding late-game heroics, but can sometimes struggle to protect third-period leads against strong forechecking teams. The Penguins are adept at grinding out wins in tight contests, excelling in defensive zone coverage during crucial moments. Their experience in overtime and shootouts gives them an advantage in extended play, often relying on their goaltender and skilled shooters.