Predicted Winner
Adrian Yañez
33%
win probability
Fight Projection
Expected Rounds2.0
KO/TKO (Home)65%
KO/TKO (Away)30%
SUB (Home)2%
SUB (Away)3%
Decision (Home)33%
Decision (Away)67%
Draw100%
Over Rounds Line30%
Under Rounds Line70%
Fighter Stats
YañezGarbrandt
Striking
6.5Sig. Strikes / Min3.1
41%Strike Accuracy39%
5.5Absorbed / Min4.1
76%Aggression Index80%
Grappling
0Takedowns / 15min0.8
0%TD Accuracy33%
80%TD Defense60%
2%Control Time %8%
0Sub Attempts / 15min0.1
60%Clutch Round Win %40%
Fight Preview
A highly anticipated Bantamweight shootout features the precise boxing of Adrian Yanez taking on former champion Cody Garbrandt. Yanez is renowned for his crisp jab, exceptional counter-striking efficiency, and defensive composure inside the pocket. Garbrandt brings elite speed, explosive power, and high-level wrestling credentials, though he frequently favors dangerous, high-risk trades. The narrative stakes are massive for both elite bantamweights, as they look to re-establish themselves within the divisional top ten through a definitive, statement-making performance.
Matchup Overview
This 3-round matchup is expected to be a high-velocity striking battle. The fight script suggests an intense tactical opening, with both fighters looking to land the decisive counter-hook that ends the contest early.
Style Analysis
Yanez employs a disciplined, boxing-first approach, using precise shot selection and footwork to control range. Garbrandt relies on extreme hand speed and explosive blitzes, though his defensive movement can break down during chaotic exchanges.
Tale of the Tape
Yanez possesses a slight reach advantage, which assists his long-range jab execution. Garbrandt holds the edge in pure athletic explosiveness and foundational wrestling pedigree.
Striking Battle
Yanez scores highly in significant strikes per minute and overall accuracy. Garbrandt's speed remains elite, but his defensive metrics show a vulnerability to absorbing clean counter shots when trading inside the pocket.
Grappling & Wrestling
Wrestling efficiency is rarely utilized by Garbrandt, despite his elite background. Yanez maintains a solid takedown defense percentage, ensuring that the matchup will likely remain contested entirely on the feet.
Recent Form
Adrian Yanez: W, L, L, W, WCody Garbrandt: L, W, W, L, L
Key Insights
Adrian Yanez possesses exceptional punching accuracy and pocket defense.Cody Garbrandt relies on blistering hand speed and heavy hook combinations.Both fighters hold a high knockout ratio within the bantamweight division.Garbrandt's wrestling could serve as a tactical variance factor if implemented.
Tactical Themes
Pocket awareness and counter-striking will dictate the outcome. Yanez must use his jab to disrupt Garbrandt's blitzes, while Garbrandt needs to mix in level changes to keep Yanez guessing.
Stamina & Momentum
Yanez maintains a highly consistent stamina profile, keeping his technical form across three rounds. Garbrandt's efficiency remains sharp unless he gets drawn into an emotional, high-energy brawl.
Finish Risk
The finish risk is extreme for both competitors. This matchup presents an elite level of volatility, with an early knockout highly probable due to both fighters' power metrics.
Data Stats
Significant Strikes Landed/Min: 6.20Significant Strikes Absorbed/Min: 5.40Takedowns per 15 Minutes: 0.00Control Time Share: 5%
Our Pick
Analytical modeling indicates a high probability of a KO/TKO finish. Yanez's technical composure makes him the favorite for a precise stoppage, while Garbrandt's power keeps him dangerous across every single sequence.
Final Verdict
This bantamweight clash will be decided by pocket discipline. Garbrandt has the speed to surprise anyone, but Yanez's precise boxing and defensive composure should guide him to a spectacular KO/TKO victory.
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Control Time
0:00
Yañez
Control
0:00
Garbrandt
Significant Strikes
16Power Strikes13
30Total Strikes32
Strikes by Zone
27Head29
2Body2
1Legs1
Grappling
0Takedowns Landed0
0Takedown Attempts1
0Submission Att.0
1
Knockdowns
KD
0
Knockdowns