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MMA·UFC 331: Van vs. Pantoja 2·Brian Ortega vs Renato Moicano
UpcomingLightweight
Brian Ortega
Brian Ortega
vs
Renato Moicano
Renato Moicano
Ladbrokes
1
2.65↓
Ladbrokes
2
1.51↓
Predicted Winner
Brian Ortega
28%
win probability
Fight Projection
Expected Rounds2.5
KO/TKO (Home)15%
KO/TKO (Away)20%
SUB (Home)30%
SUB (Away)15%
Decision (Home)10%
Decision (Away)10%
Draw100%
Over Rounds Line50%
Under Rounds Line50%
Fighter Stats
OrtegaMoicano
Striking
4.1Sig. Strikes / Min4.4
38%Strike Accuracy48%
6.6Absorbed / Min4
60%
Fight Preview

In an exciting lightweight rematch, elite submission grapplers Brian Ortega and Renato Moicano clash again. Both fighters have evolved their striking while maintaining dangerous submission skills.

Matchup Overview

A high-level tactical rematch where Ortega's opportunistic finishing ability collides with Moicano's structured volume striking and top game.

Style Analysis

Ortega is a high-variance finisher with lethal choke setups. Moicano utilizes jab-heavy volume striking coupled with dominant top position.

Tale of the Tape
  • Ortega: 5 ft 8 in, 69 in reach, 33 y/o, Switch
  • Moicano: 5 ft 11 in, 72 in reach, 35 y/o, Orthodox
Striking Battle

Moicano out-volumes opponents landing 4.40 significant strikes per minute compared to Ortega's 4.10 strikes landed.

Grappling & Wrestling

Ortega averages 1.20 submissions per 15 minutes, while Moicano secures 2.10 takedowns with strong control time.

Recent Form
  • Ortega: L W L L W
  • Moicano: W W W W L
Key Insights
  • Ortega averages 1.20 submission attempts per 15 minutes.
  • Moicano controls over 40% of ground time.
  • Moicano lands 4.40 significant strikes per minute.
  • Ortega has won all career victories via stoppage.
Tactical Themes

Key factors include jab utilization by Moicano and Ortega's neck hunting off his back.

Stamina & Momentum

Moicano sustains relentless pacing, whereas Ortega excels in clutch moments despite dropping early rounds.

Finish Risk

High submission threat for Ortega in scrambles; cut and damage risk for both during pocket trades.

Data Stats
  • Sig. Strikes Landed/Min: 4.10 vs 4.40
  • Sig. Strike Accuracy: 38% vs 48%
  • Takedowns/15m: 0.90 vs 2.10
  • Control Time Share: 22% vs 42%
Our Pick

Moicano is favored to secure a decision victory through top control and distance striking volume.

Final Verdict

Moicano's superior structural striking and top-position control give him the edge to earn a decision.

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Aggression Index
75%
Grappling
0.9Takedowns / 15min2.1
24%TD Accuracy47%
56%TD Defense72%
22%Control Time %42%
1.2Sub Attempts / 15min0.6
52%Clutch Round Win %48%