The most probable outcome is a **Decision victory for Daniil Donchenko (48%)**, as his control time and takedowns are likely to sway judges' scorecards. Theodor Berggren also has a strong chance for a Decision win (38%) if he can keep the fight standing and outpoint Donchenko. A KO/TKO finish for Berggren (10%) is plausible if he can land clean shots on Donchenko's entries. Donchenko's submission threat (2%) is present but less likely. The fight is expected to go the distance, with a round line of 2.5 rounds.

Theodor Berggren is the more refined striker, landing **5.2 significant strikes per minute** with 49% accuracy. He uses his reach and southpaw stance effectively, often landing straight lefts and head kicks. His defensive movement is strong, absorbing only 3.0 significant strikes per minute. Daniil Donchenko's striking is primarily a setup for his grappling. He lands 3.5 significant strikes per minute with 42% accuracy and absorbs 4.3, indicating a more open defense. Berggren will look to capitalize on Donchenko's entries, while Donchenko will use his strikes to close the distance and force clinch exchanges.

Daniil Donchenko holds a significant advantage in the grappling department, averaging **3.8 takedowns per 15 minutes** with 50% accuracy. His control time share often exceeds 55% in fights where he secures takedowns, demonstrating his ability to dominate on the mat. Theodor Berggren possesses a respectable takedown defense of 70%, which will be crucial in this matchup. However, his offensive grappling is minimal, with only 0.1 takedowns per 15 minutes. Donchenko also poses a submission threat, with 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, making him dangerous once he secures top control.

Theodor Berggren's tactical themes will involve maintaining distance, utilizing his southpaw jab and straight left, and employing strong defensive footwork to avoid Donchenko's entries. His **takedown defense** and ability to quickly scramble back to his feet will be paramount. Daniil Donchenko's strategy will focus on relentless forward pressure, cutting off the cage, and chaining takedown attempts. He will aim to secure body locks or double-leg takedowns, transitioning quickly to dominant positions to initiate ground-and-pound or submission attempts. Clinch control against the cage will also be a key area for Donchenko.

Theodor Berggren typically maintains a consistent pace throughout three rounds, with his technical striking remaining effective. His cardio is a known asset. Daniil Donchenko's high-pressure grappling style can be taxing, but he has demonstrated the ability to sustain his output, especially when securing early takedowns. Momentum swings will likely occur based on who is dictating the fight's location; a successful takedown for Donchenko could shift momentum dramatically, while Berggren landing significant combinations could turn the tide in striking exchanges, particularly if Donchenko's entries are predictable.

The finish risk in this bout is moderate. Theodor Berggren carries a lower early KO risk for Donchenko if he can land clean, unanswered strikes, particularly on Donchenko's entries. Donchenko's relentless grappling and ground-and-pound also pose a finish threat, especially if he can secure multiple takedowns and maintain control, potentially leading to a TKO. A submission risk from Donchenko is present, but less likely given Berggren's defensive grappling. Cuts and stoppages are less likely given both fighters' defensive capabilities, but the cumulative damage from Donchenko's ground-and-pound or Berggren's volume striking could lead to a TKO.