Predicted Winner
Guilherme Pat
55%
win probability
Fight Projection
Expected Rounds1.5
KO/TKO (Home)42%
KO/TKO (Away)38%
SUB (Home)8%
SUB (Away)4%
Decision (Home)5%
Decision (Away)3%
Over Rounds Line38%
Under Rounds Line62%
Fighter Stats
PatAsplund
Striking
3.8Sig. Strikes / Min3.2
50%Strike Accuracy46%
2.9Absorbed / Min2.7
75%Aggression Index68%
Grappling
1.8Takedowns / 15min0.5
40%TD Accuracy30%
70%TD Defense65%
52%Control Time %35%
0.4Sub Attempts / 15min0.1
52%Clutch Round Win %48%
Fight Preview
Heavyweight action continues on August 8, 2026, as Guilherme Pat faces off against Steven Asplund. This matchup pairs two distinct stylistic approaches, presenting an intriguing study in heavy-impact striking versus wrestling efficiency. Both fighters aim to climb the divisional rankings with a decisive victory in this featured bout.
Matchup Overview
A standard 3-round fight where control of central octagonal real estate will dictate the pace and structure of each round.
Style Analysis
Guilherme Pat favors aggressive combination striking and early takedown attempts, whereas Steven Asplund relies on disciplined counter-punching and physical defensive framing.
Tale of the Tape
Asplund holds a slight reach advantage, while Pat exhibits notable explosive power in initial charges.
Striking Battle
Striking exchanges will center on Pat's forward pressure against Asplund's ability to operate on the counter-attack effectively.
Grappling & Wrestling
Pat possesses higher takedowns landed per 15m metrics, while Asplund displays solid defensive takedown efficiency.
Recent Form
Guilherme Pat: W W W L WSteven Asplund: W L W W L
Key Insights
Pat averages higher ground control time share per bout.Asplund excels in significant strike defense.First round finish frequency remains highly elevated.
Tactical Themes
The primary tactical theme revolves around Pat seeking level-changes following heavy winging power shots.
Stamina & Momentum
Both athletes maintain solid pace in round one, with output naturally adjusting across subsequent rounds.
Finish Risk
High finish probability throughout rounds one and two based on career performance profiles.
Data Stats
Guilherme Pat: 3.80 sig strikes landed per minSteven Asplund: 3.20 sig strikes landed per min
Our Pick
Analytical projections indicate a strong likelihood of a finish before the final bell, driven by heavy striking power.
Final Verdict
Overall, Pat's offensive wrestling option gives him a slight multi-path edge if distance striking stalemates occur.
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Control Time
2:50
Pat
Control
4:44
Asplund
Significant Strikes
45Power Strikes66
76Total Strikes109
Strikes by Zone
55Head92
14Body11
7Legs6
Grappling
0Takedowns Landed0
0Takedown Attempts1
0Submission Att.1
1
Knockdowns
KD
2
Knockdowns