This lightweight bout features Gauge Young taking on Kody Steele in what promises to be a compelling clash of styles. Young, known for his well-rounded approach, will face Steele, a formidable grappler with a strong submission game. This non-main event fight is crucial for both athletes looking to establish dominance in the lightweight division. The outcome will likely hinge on who can impose their will and dictate the fight's location, whether on the feet or on the mat.

The fight is expected to be a classic striker-grappler dynamic. Young will likely aim to keep the fight standing, utilizing his striking advantage, while Steele will relentlessly pursue takedowns and look to establish dominant grappling positions. Expect significant grappling exchanges, with Steele attempting to secure submissions. The three-round format means both fighters will need to be efficient with their energy and capitalize on opportunities quickly. Control time will be a critical factor for judges' scorecards.

Gauge Young is a well-rounded fighter with a balanced skill set, capable of striking effectively and defending takedowns. He possesses decent power and good defensive awareness. Kody Steele is primarily a grappling specialist, renowned for his high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and relentless pursuit of submissions. His striking is developing, but his clear path to victory lies in getting the fight to the ground and controlling his opponents, constantly hunting for chokes and joint locks.

Gauge Young and Kody Steele are likely to be similar in physical dimensions for the lightweight division. Any slight height or reach advantage will be marginal. Steele's grappling pedigree is his primary physical advantage, allowing him to dictate the pace on the ground. Young's athleticism and striking fluidity will be his key physical assets. Both are in their prime fighting years, suggesting peak performance levels.

On the feet, Gauge Young holds an advantage, landing 4.80 significant strikes per minute at 42% accuracy, while absorbing 3.50. He'll look to exploit Steele's less refined striking. Kody Steele lands 3.00 significant strikes per minute at 38% accuracy, absorbing 2.50. His striking is primarily a means to set up takedowns. Young's aggression index is 7.0, indicating a willingness to engage, while Steele's is 6.0, reflecting his grappling-first approach. Young will need to be wary of Steele's entries for takedowns during striking exchanges.

Kody Steele's grappling is his strongest asset, averaging 3.50 takedowns per 15 minutes with an impressive 55% accuracy. He aims for significant control time, reflected in his 50% control time share, and poses a high submission threat with 1.2 attempts per 15 minutes. Young, while capable, lands 2.00 takedowns per 15 minutes at 40% accuracy and has a 35% control time share. Young's takedown defense is 65%, which will be crucial against Steele's relentless attempts. Steele's submission game is a constant danger.

• Gauge Young: W W L W L
• Kody Steele: W L W SUB W

• Kody Steele has a significant advantage in takedowns landed per 15 minutes (3.50 vs 2.00) and takedown accuracy (55% vs 40%).
• Steele's control time share (50%) is substantially higher than Young's (35%).
• Steele poses a much higher submission threat (1.2 attempts per 15m vs 0.5).
• Gauge Young holds an advantage in significant strikes landed per minute (4.80 vs 3.00) and significant strike defense (3.50 absorbed vs 2.50).
• Young's takedown defense (65%) will be critical in neutralizing Steele's primary weapon.
• The fight is likely to spend considerable time on the mat.

Young's tactical plan will involve maintaining distance, utilizing footwork, and defending takedowns vigorously. He will look to punish Steele on the feet with combinations and leg kicks. Steele's strategy will be to close the distance quickly, secure takedowns, and immediately work for dominant positions and submission attempts. He will likely chain wrestle and use feints to create openings for his entries. Cage pressure will be key for Steele to limit Young's movement.

Young's stamina is generally reliable for a three-round affair, allowing him to maintain his striking output. Steele's grappling-heavy approach can be taxing, but he is conditioned to sustain high-intensity grappling for the full duration. Momentum swings will likely occur with takedowns and submission attempts from Steele, potentially shifting the narrative of rounds. Young will need to avoid getting discouraged if taken down repeatedly and look for opportunities to reverse position or stand up.

The finish risk is moderate to high, primarily due to Steele's submission prowess. An early submission from Steele is a distinct possibility if he secures a dominant position. Young's KO/TKO threat is present, but less likely given Steele's defensive grappling. The fight has a 49% chance of ending inside the distance. Cuts and damage from ground and pound are also potential stoppage scenarios if Steele can maintain control.

• Gauge Young: Sig. Strikes Landed/Min: 4.80, Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min: 3.50, Takedowns Landed/15m: 2.00, Control Time Share: 35%
• Kody Steele: Sig. Strikes Landed/Min: 3.00, Sig. Strikes Absorbed/Min: 2.50, Takedowns Landed/15m: 3.50, Control Time Share: 50%

Our analytical model predicts Kody Steele to secure a victory, with a high probability of Submission (40%) or Decision (35%). Gauge Young's best path to victory is by KO/TKO (25%) if he can keep the fight standing. The fight is projected to go the distance (50% probability), but Steele's submission threat is ever-present. If it goes to the judges, Steele's control time and submission attempts could sway the scorecards in his favor.

This lightweight contest is a classic grappler vs. striker matchup. Kody Steele's elite grappling and submission threat will be the defining factor, while Gauge Young will aim to keep the fight standing and utilize his striking. Steele's ability to secure takedowns and control positions makes him the favorite. Young's takedown defense will be paramount to his success. Expect a strategic battle with significant ground exchanges.