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MMA·UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Rodrigues·Stan Dorsainvil vs Gauge Young
FinalLightweightUD
Stan Dorsainvil
Stan DorsainvilW
vs
Gauge Young
Gauge Young
Predicted Winner
Stan Dorsainvil
52%
win probability
Fight Projection
Expected Rounds3.0
KO/TKO (Home)30%
KO/TKO (Away)10%
SUB (Home)5%
SUB (Away)15%
Decision (Home)25%
Decision (Away)30%
Over Rounds Line55%
Under Rounds Line45%
Fighter Stats
DorsainvilYoung
Striking
5Sig. Strikes / Min4
44%Strike Accuracy40%
3.8Absorbed / Min3.5
7.8%
Fight Preview

The lightweight division will feature an intriguing matchup on August 22, 2026, as Stan Dorsainvil takes on Gauge Young. Dorsainvil is known for his explosive power and knockout ability, often seeking to end fights early. Young, a more well-rounded fighter, brings a gritty style with solid wrestling and a relentless pace. This fight pits Dorsainvil's finishing threat against Young's durability and grappling control. Both fighters are eager to make a statement, making this three-round contest a crucial step in their respective careers.

Matchup Overview

This lightweight contest is expected to be a dynamic clash of styles. Stan Dorsainvil will likely look to establish his striking early, aiming to land powerful combinations and secure a knockout. Gauge Young, with his more balanced approach, will attempt to weather the early storm, close the distance, and implement his wrestling to control the fight on the ground. The key to this matchup will be Dorsainvil's ability to defend takedowns and maintain striking range versus Young's persistence in securing grappling exchanges and maintaining control time.

Style Analysis

Stan Dorsainvil is a powerful, aggressive striker who primarily operates from an Orthodox stance. He possesses significant knockout power and often looks for highlight-reel finishes. While his striking is his main weapon, his defensive grappling can be exploited. Gauge Young is a gritty, well-rounded fighter who blends solid striking with effective wrestling. He is known for his relentless pressure and ability to grind opponents down. Young's style is characterized by his durability and willingness to engage in tough exchanges, both on the feet and on the mat.

Tale of the Tape

Stan Dorsainvil stands 5'9" with a 71" reach, fighting from an Orthodox stance. At 27 years old, he is in his athletic prime. Gauge Young is 5'8" with a 69" reach, also fighting from an Orthodox stance. At 29, he brings slightly more experience. Dorsainvil will have a slight reach advantage, which could aid his striking from distance. However, the physical attributes are relatively close, suggesting that technical skill and strategic execution will be the primary determinants of success in this lightweight bout.

Striking Battle

Stan Dorsainvil is the more potent striker, landing 5.0 significant strikes per minute with 44% accuracy, while absorbing 3.8 strikes per minute. His power is his biggest asset. Gauge Young lands 4.0 significant strikes per minute with 40% accuracy, absorbing 3.5. Young's striking is more functional, often used to set up takedowns or to maintain distance. Dorsainvil's powerful combinations will test Young's chin and defensive capabilities, while Young's ability to absorb punishment and counter could create openings for his wrestling entries.

Grappling & Wrestling

Gauge Young holds a clear advantage in the grappling department. He averages 2.8 takedowns per 15 minutes with 48% accuracy and maintains a 45% control time share, demonstrating his ability to dictate where the fight takes place. His submission attempts are moderate at 0.7 per 15 minutes. Stan Dorsainvil has a respectable 65% takedown defense, but his offensive grappling is minimal (0.4 takedowns per 15 minutes) and his control time share is low (25%). Dorsainvil's ability to stuff takedowns will be crucial to his game plan.

Recent Form
  • Stan Dorsainvil: W (KO), L (DEC), W (DEC), W (KO), L (SUB)
  • Gauge Young: W (DEC), W (SUB), L (DEC), W (DEC), L (KO)
Key Insights
  • Dorsainvil's significant strikes landed per minute (5.0) and knockout power are his primary weapons.
  • Young's takedowns landed per 15 minutes (2.8) and control time share (45%) highlight his grappling strength.
  • Dorsainvil's takedown defense (65%) will be a critical factor against Young's wrestling.
  • Both fighters have shown durability, suggesting a potential decision outcome if neither can secure a finish.
  • Young's relentless pressure could wear down Dorsainvil over three rounds.
  • Dorsainvil will need to land early and often to prevent Young from establishing his grappling game.
Tactical Themes

Dorsainvil's tactical theme will be to establish his striking range, utilize his power punches, and defend takedowns with strong sprawl-and-brawl tactics. He will aim to keep the fight in the center of the cage. Young's strategy will involve closing the distance, feinting, and executing well-timed level changes for takedowns. Once on the ground, he will focus on maintaining top control, landing ground-and-pound, and looking for submission opportunities. Clinch work against the cage will be vital for Young to drain Dorsainvil's energy.

Stamina & Momentum

Stan Dorsainvil's high-power striking style can sometimes lead to fatigue in later rounds if he doesn't secure an early finish. His momentum is heavily tied to landing impactful strikes. Gauge Young is known for his excellent cardio and ability to maintain a high pace throughout three rounds, often getting stronger as the fight progresses. His momentum builds through successful grappling exchanges and control. If Dorsainvil cannot finish early, Young's stamina and relentless pressure could become a significant factor in the championship rounds.

Finish Risk

The risk of a finish in this fight is moderate. Stan Dorsainvil carries a significant early KO/TKO risk, especially in the first round, given his explosive power. Gauge Young, while durable, has been stopped by strikes before. Young's finishing threat is lower, primarily through submission, but he is more likely to win by decision. The potential for cuts and facial damage is present due to Dorsainvil's power, which could lead to a doctor stoppage, adding a layer of volatility to the contest.

Data Stats
  • Stan Dorsainvil:
    • Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 5.0
    • Significant Strike Accuracy: 44%
    • Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 3.8
    • Takedowns Landed per 15 Minutes: 0.4
    • Takedown Accuracy: 25%
    • Takedown Defense: 65%
    • Control Time Share: 25%
    • Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes: 0.2
  • Gauge Young:
    • Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 4.0
    • Significant Strike Accuracy: 40%
    • Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 3.5
    • Takedowns Landed per 15 Minutes: 2.8
    • Takedown Accuracy: 48%
    • Takedown Defense: 60%
    • Control Time Share: 45%
    • Submission Attempts per 15 Minutes: 0.7
Our Pick

Our analytical model suggests a competitive lightweight bout. Stan Dorsainvil's best path to victory is an early KO/TKO, leveraging his power. Gauge Young's most probable outcome is a decision victory, grinding out rounds with his wrestling and control time. While Dorsainvil has the higher KO/TKO probability, Young's durability and grappling make him a tough opponent to finish. The fight is likely to go the distance, with Young having a slight edge on the scorecards if he can consistently secure takedowns and maintain control.

Final Verdict

This lightweight bout presents a classic striker-versus-grappler dynamic. Dorsainvil's powerful striking will be tested by Young's durable, well-rounded game and effective wrestling. While Dorsainvil has the power to end the fight early, Young's ability to absorb damage and implement his grappling makes him a tough opponent. Young's superior wrestling and control time give him a slight edge in a decision, but Dorsainvil's knockout threat ensures a volatile and exciting contest.

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Aggression Index
7.2%
Grappling
0.4Takedowns / 15min2.8
25%TD Accuracy48%
65%TD Defense60%
25%Control Time %45%
0.2Sub Attempts / 15min0.7
0.5%Clutch Round Win %0.5%