The Flyweight division delivers a technical treat on June 20, 2026, as Mitch Raposo squares off against Allan Nascimento. This bout features two highly skilled martial artists, with a strong emphasis on grappling and submission prowess. Raposo, known for his well-rounded game, will face the elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu of Nascimento. The stakes are significant for both, as a victory could position them for a run in the competitive 125-pound division. Fans can anticipate a chess match on the mat, with intricate transitions and submission attempts defining the contest.

This Flyweight contest is projected to be a grappling-heavy affair, with both fighters actively seeking takedowns and positional control. Raposo's wrestling will be tested by Nascimento's superior jiu-jitsu. While striking exchanges will occur, they are likely to serve as setups for entries into the clinch or takedowns. The fight's script suggests dynamic transitions on the ground, with both fighters looking for dominant positions and submission opportunities. Given their technical abilities, a three-round pacing is probable, with the judges' scorecards potentially deciding the winner.

Mitch Raposo is a well-rounded fighter with a strong wrestling base and improving striking. He prefers to mix his martial arts, using his striking to set up takedowns and control opponents on the mat. His defensive grappling is solid, and he can threaten with submissions. Allan Nascimento is an elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, with a primary focus on grappling and submissions. His striking is functional but primarily used to close distance and initiate takedowns. Once on the ground, he is a constant submission threat, known for his slick transitions and chokes.

Mitch Raposo, an Orthodox fighter, stands 5'7" with a 68" reach and is 27 years old. Allan Nascimento, also Orthodox, is 5'6" with a 67" reach and is 31 years old. Raposo holds a slight height and reach advantage, which could offer a marginal edge in striking range. Nascimento, despite being slightly older, brings a wealth of experience in high-level grappling. The physical attributes are relatively even, suggesting that skill and game plan execution will be the deciding factors in this technical matchup.

Mitch Raposo lands 3.8 significant strikes per minute with 42% accuracy, absorbing 3.0 per minute. His striking is effective but often used to set up his wrestling. Allan Nascimento lands 2.8 significant strikes per minute with 35% accuracy, absorbing 2.5 per minute. Nascimento's striking is less about volume or power and more about creating openings for takedowns. While both can strike, neither is expected to seek a prolonged stand-up battle. The striking exchanges will likely be brief, with a focus on entries into grappling range.

Mitch Raposo averages 2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes with 45% accuracy, demonstrating a clear intent to grapple. His takedown defense is 70%. He maintains a 40% control time share and averages 0.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes. Allan Nascimento is a grappling phenom, averaging 3.0 takedowns per 15 minutes with an impressive 55% accuracy. His takedown defense is 75%, and he boasts a significant 50% control time share. Crucially, Nascimento averages 1.5 submission attempts per 15 minutes, making him a constant threat on the ground. This will be a high-level grappling chess match.

• Mitch Raposo: W L W SUB W
• Allan Nascimento: W SUB W L W

• Allan Nascimento has superior takedown accuracy (55%) and submission attempts (1.5 per 15 min).
• Mitch Raposo has a solid wrestling base (2.5 TD per 15 min) and good takedown defense (70%).
• Nascimento's control time share (50%) is slightly higher than Raposo's (40%).
• Both fighters have a strong preference for grappling, indicating a ground-heavy fight.
• The fight has a moderate probability of ending via submission, particularly from Nascimento.

Raposo's tactical theme will be to utilize his wrestling to secure takedowns and maintain top control, aiming to neutralize Nascimento's submission game from the bottom. He will need to be extremely cautious in transitions and avoid giving up his neck or limbs. Nascimento's strategy will be to initiate takedowns, or pull guard if necessary, to get the fight to the ground. Once there, he will relentlessly hunt for submissions, using his superior jiu-jitsu to sweep, pass, and finish. His striking will be used to feint and create openings for entries.

Mitch Raposo has demonstrated good cardio, capable of maintaining a high-paced wrestling game for three rounds. His momentum often builds through control time. Allan Nascimento, as an elite grappler, is accustomed to the energy demands of ground fighting and has excellent submission-hunting stamina. Momentum in this fight will heavily swing with successful takedowns, sweeps, and submission attempts. The fighter who can dictate the grappling exchanges will likely control the momentum and energy expenditure of their opponent.

The risk of a finish in this fight is moderate, primarily through submission. Allan Nascimento poses a significant submission threat from any position on the ground, making late submission risk high. KO/TKO risk is low for both fighters. The volatility lies in the intricate grappling exchanges; a single mistake could lead to a quick tap. While a decision is the most probable outcome, Nascimento's submission prowess means Raposo must be vigilant throughout, especially in the later rounds when fatigue sets in.

• Mitch Raposo:
• Significant Strikes Landed per Min: 3.8
• Significant Strikes Absorbed per Min: 3.0
• Takedowns Landed per 15 Min: 2.5
• Control Time Share: 40%
• Allan Nascimento:
• Significant Strikes Landed per Min: 2.8
• Significant Strikes Absorbed per Min: 2.5
• Takedowns Landed per 15 Min: 3.0
• Control Time Share: 50%

Our analytical model predicts a highly technical grappling contest. Allan Nascimento is favored to win by Submission (40%), leveraging his elite jiu-jitsu. Mitch Raposo's best path to victory is via Decision (35%), showcasing his wrestling and control. A decision win for Nascimento is 20%. KO/TKO probabilities are low for both (Raposo 5%, Nascimento 0%), as are submission for Raposo (0%). The fight is expected to go the distance, with a high probability of reaching the judges' scorecards. If a finish occurs, it's most likely a submission in Round 2 or 3.

The Flyweight bout between Mitch Raposo and Allan Nascimento is a high-level grappling contest. Raposo's wrestling will be tested by Nascimento's elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and submission game. The fighter who can best impose their ground game- Raposo with control or Nascimento with submissions- will likely secure the victory. Expect a technical, strategic battle with a strong possibility of going to the judges' scorecards.